In my experience, I’ve found that success results not from taking blind risks but from limiting risks. Making an assessment allows me to engage in a calculated way. Numbers help me find a baseline or my acceptable worst case. But understand, this is a probability, not a guarantee. If my worst probability reasonably accounts for my downside, I go forward.

I then rely upon my work ethic combined with contrarian innovation to create positive possibilities. Here I become less scientific and more of a performance artist. Why? Because business is nothing more than life measured economically. Measurement occurs after the event, looking backwards. There is no crystal ball. But if you don’t spend time doing both of these you’ll fail.

When asked how one may discover their destiny, a wise man responded, “you create it.” For me, “creating” engages a visual process. A target for guidance, if you will, like beacon for a plane, so I know where I am aiming… where I’m supposed to arrive. This planning engages both left and right sides of my brain… masculine and feminine. It’s the harmonizing of science and art. Where I am somewhat logical but equally inspired.

Much of my methodology has evolved from my study of Nassim Taleb’s work, turning unknown unknowns into known unknowns. His secret lies in lessening the devastating effects of black swan anomalies by reducing the magnitude of losses that could have been prevented. Most focus only on traditional models of frequency and volume and forget Mandelbrot’s fractal work about the third element of magnitude. In simpler terms, it means we are not faced with having to earn 100% on our money because we took a 50% loss of capital. Instead, recovering from a 10% loss means we only have to achieve a 12% yield. Much more reasonable and doable.

And both pale to taking no loss while earning a mere 2%. This analogy applies to all areas of life. My son likes my quote that Marine snipers are taught to be the best at achieving near-impossible missions: “Slow is smooth; smooth is fast.”

My old blog may offer deeper insights, especially posts of essays dated after 2010.

Charlie Mike ===> Continue Mission!